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Holdem Lesson
3: The Flop
WHEN
YOU MISS THE FLOP, FOLD!
This
is where the hand usually defines itself; as a result, the play on
the flop is usually more complicated then the play on the previous
and future rounds. Although the following are some guidelines, we
won't pretend to have given you everything you need to know here.
We could devote five hundred pages to the play on the flop, and still
not cover everything.
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The
flop is another spot where most bad players lose a lot of money.
When you enter a pot, you should have a pretty good idea of what
kind of flop you're looking for. Unfortunately, you usually won't
catch it. When this happens—and it will happen a lot—you
can generally fold the hand and be done with it. For instance: you
have Ac Jc, and the flop comes something like Kh 8h 7c. In this spot
your play is usually to check and fold. You can't be sure a jack
will be good if it hits, and an ace might give someone two pair.
Also, you’re susceptible to flush and straight draws even if
you do hit on the turn. Another example is when you have a hand like
88 and the flop comes 9c Qc 2h. You should fold. You’ll
see a lot of players who 'marry themselves' to big starting hands,
and stubbornly continue on, calling bets and even raises, when the
flop has missed them completely. Don't become one of them. Remember
that one of the basic concepts to playing hold 'em successfully is
to lose as little money as possible when you do not have the best
hand. People who often 'chase' (keep playing with the hope
that their miracle card will come on the turn or river) are not consistent
winners.
That
said, there are spots where you might decide to stick around to see
the turn. For instance, if you have Ac Jc and the flop had come 9c
6h 3d, you might call one bet in order to see the turn. The
reason is that although the flop did not do much to help your hand,
it probably didn't do much to help anyone else's hand either. An
ace on the turn will probably give you the best hand (although beware
of someone playing a hand like A3, since an ace will help them more
then it helps you), and it's unlikely that a jack will give someone
two pair, unless they're playing precisely J9. Further, you can catch
running clubs to give you the best possible flush.
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Whenever
you've 'missed' the flop (and by that we mean you've neither flopped
top pair or better, nor a four flush or an open ended straight draw)
and are considering whether or not to continue with the hand, you
should ideally decide which cards will likely help you more than
they'll help your opponent(s) and calculate the chances of one of
those cards landing on the next street. Consider this: each card
has roughly a 2% chance of showing up at any given time, so the calculations
aren';t hard. For example, let's say you have AK and have missed
the flop (no A or K). If you think an A or a K on the turn will give
you the best hand, multiply 6 (the number of A's and K's remaining
in the deck) by 2 (the percent chance that either of these six cards
will drop on the turn). Hence, you have about a 12.5% chance of improving
your hand on the next card. These odds may not sound great to you,
but as long as there are seven bets in the pot it would be correct
for you to call. Since 12.5% the same as 7:1, you need
around seven bets in the pot to justify the call. If you also have
'running flush' possibilities (as is the case with the above mentioned
Ac Jc), you can usually safely add '1 out' to the list of cards you'd
like to see. So, instead of having six 'outs', you would have seven. You
can use these same calculations on the turn when deciding if you
should continue on and see the river.
Calculating
your odds of getting the cards you want and weighing those odds against
how much money you can expect to win if you do end up with the best
hand is a whole subject on its own. If you decide you want
to get really serious about the game, it is a concept you should
learn. Or, if you like odds and math, this concept might appeal
to you. For now, lets suffice it to say that the more money
that is in the pot, the more "correct" it becomes for you to chase
a little.
Lessons
and quizzes courtesy of
Netbettor.com
- the online poker source for advantage players
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